$3,498,000
3837 Carlson Ct, Palo Alto 94306
AddressIntel AI Briefing
A teardown-and-mansionize strategy is the premier play here given Palo Alto's incredible land values and highly active local builder market. While liquefaction is a known blocker requiring enhanced engineering, the exceptional demand for high-end new builds easily justifies the structural mitigation.
Property Permit History
| Date | Project Type | Status | Valuation | Contractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-09-08 | Finaled | -- | ZAYER QUALITY CONSTRUCTION | |
| 2015-05-29 | Finaled | $198,000 | ZAYER QUALITY CONSTRUCTION | |
| 2013-03-08 | Permit Issued | -- | ROTO-ROOTER |
Recent Neighborhood Remodeling (Palo Alto)
Parcel & Zoning Info
ADU Potential
Flag / irregular · Corner lot · ~107 ft frontage × 124 ft deep, a tucked-away rear unit is very private; access is typically via the pole driveway. A second street frontage lets an ADU take its own entrance and address.
Screening heuristic based on lot size, existing coverage, lot orientation, and hazard overlays. CA ADU law is ministerial statewide; verify max size, setbacks, and JADU owner-occupancy with the local planning dept.
Redevelopment Potential
Meaningful unused floor-area headroom under current zoning, room to add square footage. Zoning allows roughly 2,841 sqft of gross floor area on this lot.
Screening estimate comparing existing living area to the city's single-family floor-area limit. FAR rule curated from current municipal code. Source: PAMC 18.12.040 Table 2; max house size 6,000 sqft (as of 2026-06-30). Verify FAR, coverage, setbacks, and height with the local planning dept.
Hazard Snapshot
Flood Zone
Fire Severity
Liquefaction
Fault Zone
Not a substitute for a Natural Hazard Disclosure (NHD) report. Zones reflect available GIS data and may not cover all localities. Liquefaction and fault flags: modified from California Geological Survey, Web Service of Official Maps of Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones and Web Service of Official Maps of Seismic Hazard Zones (2025).
Nearby Public Schools
Herbert Hoover Elementary
Palo Alto Unified
Jane Lathrop Stanford Middle
Palo Alto Unified
Henry M. Gunn High
Palo Alto Unified
School boundaries are subject to change. Nearest school distance does not guarantee enrollment eligibility. Check with the local district. Data provided by CDE.
Proprietary Intelligence
Market Heat Index
71/100
Based on recent sales velocity and local demand in 94306.
Flippability Score
80/100
Measures neighborhood renovation density vs. recent permits on this property.
Bidding War Prob.
44%
Likelihood of multiple offers based on local list-to-sale ratios and DOM.
Proforma ROI Calculator
Back-of-the-napkin deal analysis across development strategies.
Zoning allows roughly 2,841 sqft on this lot, and the default builds to that envelope. The FAR figure is a discretionary-review trigger, not a hard cap.
Median of 12 recent single-family sales in Palo Alto (94306): $2,014/sqft, plus 5% because new houses sold at a median 1.07x their comps across 239 real rebuilds. Sized within 25% of the 2,800 sqft build, because smaller houses sell for more per foot and pricing a rebuild off them overstates resale.
Commission, transfer tax and closing. Deducted from resale before profit, so the ROI below is net of the exit rather than gross.
Interest on the purchase price for the whole project plus half the build budget, since construction draws ramp up. The default is 7% over 33 months, the median purchase-to-sale time of 239 real Peninsula and South Bay rebuilds. Set the rate to 0 for a cash purchase, or use your own lender's terms.
Projected Profit
Warning: Project is mathematically underwater.
Recent Comparables (Palo Alto 94306)
Sized to the modelled 2,800 sqft build: sales within 25% of it. Smaller houses sell for more per foot, so pricing a rebuild off them overstates resale.