$899,000
654 Ash Ave, South San Francisco 94080
AddressIntel AI Briefing
Recent local alteration permit activity highlights this neighborhood as a hot market, making a complete teardown-and-mansionize build highly viable. A stealth density play featuring a primary remodel plus a new rear ADU is also an exceptional, lower-risk alternative. The massive pricing spread provides a very healthy margin of safety.
Property Permit History
| Date | Project Type | Status | Valuation | Contractor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | RESIDENTIAL - ALTERATIONS | ISSUED | -- | Unknown |
Recent Neighborhood Remodeling (South San Francisco)
Parcel & Zoning Info
ADU Potential
Flag / irregular · Corner lot · ~88 ft frontage × 114 ft deep, a tucked-away rear unit is very private; access is typically via the pole driveway. A second street frontage lets an ADU take its own entrance and address.
Screening heuristic based on lot size, existing coverage, lot orientation, and hazard overlays. CA ADU law is ministerial statewide; verify max size, setbacks, and JADU owner-occupancy with the local planning dept.
Seller Motivation
Inferred from days on market and listing-description language (e.g. "as-is", "estate sale", "motivated seller"). A screening heuristic for likely negotiability, not a statement about the seller's circumstances.
Redevelopment Potential
Small, older home using a low share of the allowable building envelope on a sizable lot, a scrape-and-rebuild or major-expansion play. Zoning allows roughly 2,029 sqft of gross floor area on this lot.
Screening estimate comparing existing living area to the city's single-family floor-area limit. City sets no explicit FAR (or is not individually curated); allowable area is a conservative estimate. Source: conservative default (0.40 FAR — city not individually curated) (as of 2026-06-30). Verify FAR, coverage, setbacks, and height with the local planning dept.
Hazard Snapshot
Flood Zone
Fire Severity
Liquefaction
Fault Zone
Not a substitute for a Natural Hazard Disclosure (NHD) report. Zones reflect available GIS data and may not cover all localities. Liquefaction and fault flags: modified from California Geological Survey, Web Service of Official Maps of Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones and Web Service of Official Maps of Seismic Hazard Zones (2025).
Nearby Public Schools
Martin Elementary
South San Francisco Unified
Parkway Heights Middle
South San Francisco Unified
South San Francisco High
South San Francisco Unified
School boundaries are subject to change. Nearest school distance does not guarantee enrollment eligibility. Check with the local district. Data provided by CDE.
Proprietary Intelligence
Market Heat Index
78/100
Based on recent sales velocity and local demand in 94080.
Flippability Score
88/100
Measures neighborhood renovation density vs. recent permits on this property.
Bidding War Prob.
3%
Likelihood of multiple offers based on local list-to-sale ratios and DOM.
Proforma ROI Calculator
Back-of-the-napkin deal analysis across development strategies.
We don't hold this jurisdiction's floor-area rule, so the default builds to roughly 2,029 sqft from a conservative 0.40 FAR approximation, a starting point and not a zoning answer. Check the local code before you rely on it.
Median of 12 recent single-family sales in South San Francisco (94080): $845/sqft, plus 5% because new houses sold at a median 1.07x their comps across 239 real rebuilds. Sized within 25% of the 2,000 sqft build, because smaller houses sell for more per foot and pricing a rebuild off them overstates resale.
Commission, transfer tax and closing. Deducted from resale before profit, so the ROI below is net of the exit rather than gross.
Interest on the purchase price for the whole project plus half the build budget, since construction draws ramp up. The default is 7% over 33 months, the median purchase-to-sale time of 239 real Peninsula and South Bay rebuilds. Set the rate to 0 for a cash purchase, or use your own lender's terms.
Projected Profit
Warning: Project is mathematically underwater.
Recent Comparables (South San Francisco 94080)
Sized to the modelled 2,000 sqft build: sales within 25% of it. Smaller houses sell for more per foot, so pricing a rebuild off them overstates resale.